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12/27/2006 - Debating the Flat Earth Society, Part II
Greg’s Note: Mish called me last night and told me to look outside. Curious as to what he was up to this time, I stuck my head out the window. “The moon is made of cheese!” he said. Of course, I just waited in silence for his explanation. Apparently, he wanted to set me up for the final salvo in his debate with the Flat Earthers on the future of commercial real estate. Today he discusses the seemingly dismal state of building costs and rents. 12/26/2006 - Debating the Flat Earth Society, Part I
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked "Would you debate the flat earth society?" "Don't be silly", I replied, "Why debate someone when there is nothing to debate?" "But what about other fairy tales, especially those that become widely held?" retorted Mish. For once it seems I read his mind. 12/18/2006 - Nickels, Copper, Lumber
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked, "How long will it be before a nickel is worth more than a dollar?" In the discussion that followed, Mish pointed out that the metal content in a nickel is now worth 7 cents. In fact, the mint just initiated "new rules" banning the melting of nickels and pennies. 12/13/2006 - Auctioneer's Perspective
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and shouted into the phone, "Sold!" while banging a gavel on the phone. Dazed, and with bells ringing in my head, I somehow managed to calmly ask, "Just what is that all about?" "Auctions," said Mish, "I am practicing my condo auction skills." "Are condo auctions really working," I asked, "and in comparison with what?" Mish responded with a tale of two cities, Tampa versus Key West. Read on and see if auctions are really a success or not, and, if so, how. 12/11/2006 - November Jobs Report
Greg's Note: Mish called me today, talking about Omaha Steaks. It seems he nearly lost a bet for a box of them. He also went on to talk about the latest jobs numbers, and although the numbers weren't awful for a change, they were not exactly very good, either. More importantly, Mish spotted what may be the next trend in commercial real estate. He has a chart that shows his theory, but cautions we still need confirmation. 12/08/2006 - Where Is the U.S. Dollar Headed?
Greg's Note: In a shocking turn of events, I called Mish today and asked, "Where is the dollar headed?" I was hoping to catch him off guard, as he is always asking me questions I can't answer, but Mish didn't skip a beat. "I have a chart right here in front of me," he said. It seems we are at a major crossroads, right on multiyear support. Will support break? Read on and see what Mish thinks short term and long term for the U.S. dollar. 12/04/2006 - Floors, Celings, Camels, Straw
Greg's Note: Mish called me today wanting to talk about floors, ceilings, camels, and straw. "Are you cleaning out the barn?" I asked. "Not at all" replied Mish who seemed amused at my joke. Mish went on to talk about financial derivatives, Bernanke, and CPDOs which is something I never heard of. But don't worry, Mish will make it all easy to understand, and some of it in a very humorous way. Read on and see how floors, ceilings, and camels all relate to the economy. 11/30/2006 - World Trade Progress
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about world trade progress. "Have they made any agreements" I asked. "Of course", said Mish. For a moment I was excited until I found out that all that happened was that they agreed to agree, and nothing was really done. Agricultural products once again are a stumbling block. It seems that Paulson-U.S., Brown-U.K., Sarkozy-France, and Merkel-Germany are all speaking up for globalization and "free trade". But consumer groups in the U.S. and E.U. are both wary. Is is "Free Trade" we want or "Fair Trade" we want? 11/28/2006 - Catch-22
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "he was standing on his head". "Is the perspective any different?" I asked. "Not really", he replied, "but I wanted to see how things looked from the point of view of the home builder as opposed to the typical buyer/seller." Many have been waiting for an update from Mike Morgan about the Florida housing scene and Mish comes through again. Morgan also has some comments about Cramer and Bill Gates that he shared with Mish. Read on to find out if things look better standing on your head or not. 11/23/2006 - Open Market Operations, Interest Rates, and Gold
Greg’s Note: Mish called me up today to wish me Happy Thanksgiving. Normally this is a holiday where people are busy spending time with their families, eating lots of food and watching football. But Mish is watching the markets on this Thanksgiving Day. He talked to me about an economic study by Liam J. O’Hara and liquidity traps. 11/20/2006 - Is California Going Bankrupt?
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked "Is California Going Bankrupt?" This was unusual given that he is usually telling me something not asking me something. "What do you think" I replied, employing the standard gambit of tossing the question back when you are at a loss for what to say. The gambit seems to have worked... 11/14/2006 - Lies, Deceit, Greed
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said he was listening to David Lereah at the NAR. "Your head must be spinning" I replied. "It is for sure" said Mish. "Lereah is second to none when it comes to doublespeak." At least most understand that he is a paid shill. But greed from some others in the industry is simply hard to understand. 11/10/2006 - Consumer Credit Plunges
Greg’s Note: Mish called me today and I caught him in mid-sentence: “…deeply immoral and economically suicidal…” And so I asked him how he heard about my last long term relationship. “No,” he said, “pay attention now Greg – I’m talking about the American consumer.” So I asked him to lay out his case for you. 11/06/2006 - Global Economic Train Wreck
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "A global economic train wreck" is about to happen. "Wow, that sounds serious" I replied. "It is" said Mish. He went on to explain how many people thought we were reliving "That 70's show. " But it seems we are not. It is more like "The Roaring 20's." "Can you give me some examples?" I asked. Read on to see the comparisons. I have to admit they are striking. 11/02/2006 - Nobody Saw This Coming
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "Nobody Saw This Coming." "What exactly are you talking about now?" I asked. "Zigs and Zags" replied Mish. When everyone is looking for a "Zig" the market "Zags." 10/31/2006 - Numbers Game
Greg's Note: Mish called today and asked if I believed the numbers. "What numbers?" I responded. "Basically, any of them, but for starters, how about the CPI, the unemployment rate, or the GDP?" said Mish. "No one believes those," I said to Mish. It seems I was wrong. Mish found a person who believes in those numbers. Mish went on and took a crack at dissecting the latest GDP numbers, as well as where we are headed. 10/25/2006 - Treasury Talk
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and whispered "...Return of the Big Bad Bond Daddies." I thought he was talking about another prison-horror flick, but after he explained himself I got his angle. Today Mish dissects some prominent bond fund managers' takes on the future of the bond market. The Fed says one thing, the Big Bad Bond Daddies say another. What do the Daddies have to say? Apparently some ridiculous and even absurd stuff. 10/19/2006 - The Easy Button/Pent-Up Supply
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said he is sick of donuts and is ready to push "The Easy Button." Obviously there was no way to fake a response to that so I simply asked him to explain himself. Mish went on to talk about a room of 1,000 donuts with more coming in each day and asked me "How many can you eat?" If you do not understand that question (or even if you do and want an up to date refresher course) please click on the first link in the article below. 10/16/2006 - Furniture Focus
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today talking about furniture. One big company has already gone bankrupt and there have been other profit warnings lately. Lay-Z-Boy was the latest to warn yet they claim profit margins are set to rise. Is that a credible story? 10/11/2006 - How NOT To Fix the Global Economy
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about how NOT to fix the global economy. "Don't you mean how TO fix the global economy?" I queried. Before you can fix it, replied Mish you first have to address what the real problems are that caused the imbalances. That seems to be the major disconnect. 10/10/2006 - A Discrepancy in Jobs?
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about discrepancies. It seems the government found 810,000 missing jobs. "That is a lot of lost jobs over a one-year time frame," said Mish. "What are the implications, and where are jobs numbers headed from here?" I asked. Read on and see how Mish sorts this all out. 10/06/2006 - Occam's Razor
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today and asked me what my favorite razor was. This was yet another one of those strange out of the blue type of question from Mish that I have learned not to answer directly. "I don't really have one, what's yours?" I responded. "Occam's" said Mish. "Occam's?" I questioned, "how many blades does it have?" I learned that it does not have any. Mish went on to talk about conspiracy theories vs. simple explanations. 10/03/2006 - Falling Dominoes
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "How about a game of dominoes?" "Dominoes?" I questioned, I have not played that for years. "Why on earth do you want to play dominoes?" Mish replied "I really do not want to play dominoes, I just want to discuss domino theory." It is of course conversations like this with Mish that I keep a bottle of the best whiskey I can find readily at hand. 09/29/2006 - A Major Disconnect
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "Bull" before I could even spew out a greeting. Fearing a string of profanity, I said nothing. "Bull" he repeated, "One can't be bullish about everything all the time. Bull!" Oh, now we're getting somewhere, I thought. Let's delve into my favorite curmudgeonly past time - bearish analysis. 09/26/2006 - Updating the Arrow After Home Prices Drop
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said it was time to update the arrow. As usual I had no idea what he was talking about but I decided to take a new tactic. "OK, let's do that", I responded, hoping to figure out what Mish was talking about before he caught on. Well that lasted all of 5 seconds when Mish's next statement was "You don't really know what I am talking about do you?" 09/25/2006 - The Doctor Is Calling
Greg's Note: Mish just phoned in and said, "The doctor called." "I hope it's not bad news in the family," I replied. "Oh, it's nothing like that," responded Mish. "I am talking about copper -- Dr. Copper." It seems Mish has been watching copper and other commodities as a tell on the economy. Commodities are part of the confirming indicators Mish is using to tell whether or not the housing bust is about to spill over into other areas of the economy. Well, the good doctor is now making house calls. 09/20/2006 - More Anecdotes
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked if he could pass on a few anecdotes to Whiskey readers. My initial thought was, "What?!? No singing, no quizzes, no surprise questions?" I almost dropped the phone, but somehow managed to calmly ask, "Sure, anecdotes on what?" It seems the anecdotes are on the restaurant business, the price of drinks, entertainment, and housing. It also seems that some people are getting rather testy over the housing bubble. 09/18/2006 - No Hard Landing
Greg’s Note: Mish called me up today to tell me there would not be a hard landing in housing. I was shocked. “Are you taking all your housing predictions back?” I asked. “No, not really,” Mish responded, “but I have it on great authority that there will not be a hard landing.” 09/11/2006 - Agree or Disagree
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and wanted to play a game. Wow, this is different, I thought to myself. "What game?" I asked. "Agree or Disagree," responded Mish. "I read you a paragraph from an article and you have to say whether you agree or not and why." This sounded like a trap, so I proposed reading the article to Mish and having him "Agree or Disagree." 09/08/2006 - Inflation du Jour
Greg's Note: Mish called me today to talk about inflation. Oddly enough, there were no surprise introductions, questions, or anecdotes. In other words, it started out as a perfectly normal conversation, so I was wondering when the other shoe would drop. It took awhile (as it almost always does when talking with Mish), but he finished with some pretty bold predictions. Read on and see where Mish thinks inflation and prices are headed. 09/05/2006 - What Is Ford Worth?
Greg's Note: Yesterday, Mish took a look at "The Way Forward" for Ford. One of those ways was to take Ford private. Some are suggesting that Ford's assets are way undervalued. Are they? Mish takes a look at pension and medical liabilities and comes to a completely different conclusion. Read on and find out why Ford is no bargain at these prices. 09/04/2006 - The Way Forward
Greg's Note: Mish called me today wanting to discuss "The Way Forward." "What are you proposing?" I asked Mish. "Oh, I am not proposing anything" he replied. "I want to talk about Ford's plan to move forward." "What is the key point?" I asked. Mish responded that the key idea behind "The Way Forward" is to head south. "Head south?" I enquired. Of course, that simple question got a 12-point synopsis of all the things on the table. Read on and see what they are. 08/29/2006 - How Black Is Coal?
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked, "How black is coal?" I have learned not to attempt to answer such questions from Mish. The answers are seldom what I expect. Instead, I listened to Mish talk about U.S. reserves of coal compared with the rest of the world. It seems the U.S. has the world's largest supply of coal. But burning coal contributes to global warming. Burning coal also contributes to as many as a million deaths a year in China, mostly as a result of smog. 08/28/2006 - The Psychology of Deflation
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about the "psychology of burgers." Once again, I was initially stunned, and more or less speechless. But also once again, I knew it was going to be an interesting conversation. Mish claims there has been a recent abrupt shift in consumer attitude. No, he was not talking about housing, but, rather, hamburgers. To be more precise, he talked about the restaurant business in general, although burgers were the big tell. Mish also addresses the implications of a sudden shift in consumer sentiment. 08/24/2006 - A Dose of Reality
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked if $100 million or so over five years would be enough to scrape by on. "Is this a trick question?" I responded. "No," replied Mish, adding that "Some CEOs may be risking prison because a mere $100 million was not enough." Mish also talked about an "on again, off again" dose of reality from head housing cheerleader David Lereah and others. 08/21/2006 - Reflections on Danville, Ill.
Greg's Note: Mish is getting nostalgic. This was out of the blue and caught me totally by surprise. Mish's hometown has been in the news lately, and Mish is offering his reflections, not just about Danville, but about Smalltown, USA. Is there a savior for "Smalltown," USA? If so, what is it? Read on and find out. 08/17/2006 - Labor Costs and Earnings
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about earnings. It seems that some are worried rising labor costs will put an end to the longest earnings boom in 40 years. Not so fast, says Mish. Wages may be going up - but at the expense of jobs. And the economy slows, led by the consumer. Bulls say not to worry. Mish seems to think the party's over. Look at the comparisons and see if you agree with Mish. 08/14/2006 - Health Care Fiasco
Greg’s Note: Mish called me today and said he is very concerned about health care. “Look at how much we are spending. What are we getting out of it?” he asked. It seems you can get cheaper and better care by flying to India. Mish talked about this before, but now companies are actually paying people a percentage of the savings if they will go overseas. Work for the right company and it pays to get sick! 08/10/2006 - Beware of Alligators
Greg's Note: Mish called me today to warn me about alligators. "They are all over the place, swarming the country and very hungry," he said. "Don't be silly," I responded. "This is Baltimore, not Florida. Besides, it's dry as a bone here. No self-respecting alligator would be within hundreds of miles of here." Once again, there was a huge disconnect in the conversation. It seems Mish was not really talking about alligators, except conceptually. I can say, however, these phone calls from Mish do make my day interesting. 08/07/2006 - Strike Four
Greg's Note: Mish called me and asked how many strikes one gets. "Three, obviously" I responded. He replied: "That's baseball...What about economist predictions on jobs?" "Did they miss again?" I asked. It seems the answer is yes. Mish went digging into the numbers to find out why. 08/04/2006 - Ron Paul on Gas Prices
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about gas prices. They are soaring. "What can government do about it?" I asked. The best thing, said Mish, would be to just get out of the way and let market forces work. He also passed on a speech by Ron Paul and a letter from John Murtha to the president. Warning: what follows is both political and economic. 08/02/2006 - Is the Fed Irrelevant?
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said, "Reality is setting in." "For whom?" I asked. I thought it was a 30-second question at the time, yet I received a five-minute response. It seems that reality is setting in for some, but not others. Mish added to the Saga of Sonnypage that he started last week. But have Bernanke and the Fed seen the light yet? Even if they have, does it matter? Mish goes on to ask then answer the question, "Is the Fed Irrelevant?" 07/31/2006 - A Big Squeeze on Farmers
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said, "It's hot." "Tell me about it," I quickly responded. "Our ice has all melted, and whiskey on the rocks without the rocks just does not make it." I thought that last comment might catch him off guard, but he quickly responded with anecdotes about cornfields looking more like Texas toast than corn. "There is a big squeeze on farmers," said Mish. It seems oil and fertilizer costs are soaring. Ethanol is in demand, but corn prices are somehow back to1940s levels. 07/27/2006 - Lights Out in Georgia
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said, "The lights went out in Georgia." "I hope this is not another singing telegram," I responded. "Oh no," said Mish. "Besides I don't like that song anyway." Greg apologizes to Whiskey readers who like the song "The Night the Lights Went out in Georgia." 07/24/2006 - FOOLish Nonsense
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked, "Where do they get these ideas from?" "Ideas? What ideas?" I responded. Mish gave me a list of five ideas that have somehow found popular support 07/20/2006 - Urgent Message to Gold, Silver, Oil, and Commodity Traders
Greg's Note: Mish called me today frothing in anger. He is upset that the government may be ready to take away one of the few useful reports that it puts out. Mish says it's just another attempt to stack the deck against the small guy. Kevin Kerr agrees wholeheartedly with Mish, and has a few choice words to say, as well. So what are these guys so upset about? While it may appear at first glance to be about commodities, the real issue is freedom of information. 07/19/2006 - USA for Sale (Part 2)
Greg's Note: The following article takes a look at the practice of selling off U.S. assets to finance our balance of trade deficit. Cash is piling up in foreign coffers, especially China and Japan. What are they to do with it? Congress blocked the sale of Unocal to China and port operations to Dubai, but increasingly, toll roads and bridges are for sale to foreigners. Is the balance of trade deficit really a sign of strength, as some have suggested? In what way is the sale of roads and bridges to foreigners a good thing? 07/17/2006 - Get Before the Gettin' Gets Worse
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said, "It's time to get." "Get where?" I asked. All Mish said was "Out." Sometimes, I think Mish expects everyone to read his mind. "You are going to have to do better than that," I said. Following is the result of that brief conversation. Read on and find out what is on Mish's mind now. 07/12/2006 - Medical Tourism
Greg's Note: In this article, Mish looks at the growing trend of "medical tourism." Who is doing it, and why? Can it really be cheaper to fly to India for an operation or dental work? Is the medical staff in India and Thailand as good as in the U.S.? What are the economic implications of this trend? Mish attempts to answer those questions and more. 07/10/2006 - Strike Three
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today and said there was a "called strike three." This was another obvious setup by Mish, but I decided to play along. "Who went down without a swing?" I asked. "Jobs," replied Mish, "jobs." Three months in a row, an entire quarter of missed jobs estimates. "People are angry over it too," said Mish, "Ron Paul even made a Congressional speech on anger." 07/03/2006 - 23 Skidoo
Greg’s Note: Mish called me today promptly at 7:30 a.m. and told me it was time to “23 skidoo.” Given that Mish is often up till 3:00 a.m. pontificating about things and seldom calls before 10:30 a.m., I quickly dismissed this as “sleeptalking.” “23 skidoo…What’s that?” I asked. It seems that Mish was not “sleeptalking,” but was, rather, up late watching reruns of 1970s TV programs on Nick at Nite . Somehow that inspired the following article. 06/30/2006 - FOMC Rally
Greg’s Note: Mish called me today with trumpets blazing “Reveille” in the background. “What’s with all this musical stuff lately?” I asked Mish. All he could say was that Bernanke’s Big Band was playing hit after hit. On a more serious note, Mish takes a good look at the market reaction to Thursday’s FOMC statement. What is the VIX saying? Are still more hikes coming? Is stagflation on the way, or something else? Mish’s attempts to answer those questions and more. Read on and find out. 06/28/2006 - Musical Chairs
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said there was going to be a shortage of chairs. "Is this because of the recent uptick in housing starts?" I asked. "Oh, no" said Mish. "The shortage will be readily apparent soon after Bernanke pauses." It soon became apparent that Mish was talking about "musical chairs," a game most of us played when we were kids. Only this time, the stakes are real, with homebuilders and credit-lending participants most at risk of not finding a chair. 06/21/2006 - Litigation Nightmare & Heartbreak Hotel
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today singing a collection of wildly different tunes: A remake of the Eagles classic "Hotel California." A Mother Goose nursery rhyme, "Merrily We Roll Along." A new song Mish calls "Litigation Blues," which he claims will be a smash blues hit someday. A rock 'n' roll hit from the '50s by Elvis, and several others as well. "That's quite a medley," I said. "But exactly what does this pertain to?" "Housing, of course," answered Mish. "Isn't it obvious?" 06/19/2006 - Flationed Out
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about stagflation. Immediately, I became suspicious, but, in a rarity these days, the conversation proceeded along normal terms and I understood (more or less) what he was saying. I asked him if he was on the verge of throwing in the towel on deflation. "Oh no," he said, "and I want to explain why." Not being used to a normal conversation with Mish, I cleverly played along. "What precisely is stagflation, anyway?" I asked. Mish explained, and then he explained why we really were not in it. In fact, there are at least 11 terms that can be used to describe the current economy. "Eleven?" I asked? 06/15/2006 - A Look at Averages
Greg's Note: Mish called me today to talk about averages. "Averages?" I asked. "Yes," he said. "On average," everything is fine. "Wow, that's a relief," I said, especially in light of the plunges in the global equity markets. "Wait a second, you are not attempting to fool me again are you?" I asked. Perhaps he was, but I am used to that by now. Read on to find out what Mish thinks about average wages, average debt burdens, the average auto loan, and all sorts of other averages. 06/13/2006 - Let's Go International
Greg's Note: Mish called me today about housing bubbles in Spain and Canada. It was a refreshing change of pace, actually, since for the first time in weeks I knew immediately what he was talking about. Still, I was puzzled. "What the heck do you know about Spain?" I asked. "Next to nothing," replied Mish. "Well, then, how can you possibly write about it?" I responded. All Mish said was "Felix." I just knew that at some point I would not have a single clue what he was talking about. Why should this conversation be any different? I thought. "Felix?" I questioned. "Yes, Felix," said Mish. It seems that Felix has been sending Mish e-mails about the housing bubble in Spain. 06/09/2006 - Cheerleader Panic/Battle of New Orleans
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today and said, "The war is over." Wow, I thought. We are finally pulling out of Iraq. "Not exactly," said Mish, "I am talking about the War of 1812." Once again, I was struggling to make any sense out of what he was trying to say. He then started talking about "cheerleader panic," current interest rates, housing, and a half dozen other things. "Can you tie this all together so that our readers can make sense out of it?" I asked. You know what? I believe he did. Read on to see how it was done, and perhaps learn a bit about history in the process. 06/06/2006 - Mish's Movie Review
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about movies. What a refreshing change of pace, I thought. He then described a remake of A Few Good Men and a new movie called Men In Gr een. Suddenly, I became suspicious. "Are these real movies?" I asked Mish. Not really," he said, "but nonetheless they are playing at a theater near you." Of course, I was intrigued by that statement, so I asked Mish to send in his review. In the unusual role of Ebert and Roeper, Mish talks about two new movies (and a few more things to boot). 06/05/2006 - Nightmare Carry Trade Scenario
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about nightmares, more specifically the "nightmare carry trade scenario." "What's that?" I asked. Mish went on to explain about ZIRP and QE and monetary bases and all sorts of other things. "Whoa," I replied. "You better write all of this up so people can understand it." 06/01/2006 - The Global Liquidity Game Is in the 9th Inning
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today talking about baseball. The first words out of his mouth were, "It's the ninth inning." "Who is playing? Can St. Louis finally make it to the finals?" I asked. "Oh, no," said Mish, "I am talking about the Global Liquidity Game." I suppose by now I should have known better, but he always seems to get me. Mish went on to discuss a "fake" strong dollar policy, a weak yen policy, and an interesting viewpoint on the RMB. 05/26/2006 - Greenspan Predicts Housing Bust
Greg's Note: Mish called me today to say that Greenspan is predicting a housing collapse. "Wow! When did he say that?" I asked. "Actually, he called for ‘stable prices,’ replied Mish, “but his track record is so awful at major turns that we know what is coming.” Mish went on to talk about David Lereah, the head economist for the National Association of REALTORS. The disconnect between what Lereah is saying and what is happening is staggering. 05/23/2006 - Wake-Up Call
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today and said alarm bells are ringing. "Where?" I asked. "All over the world," he responded. He went on to say that it appears the central bankers and governments of the world are deaf. Mish offered a solution but doubts anyone is listening. Read on and find out. 05/22/2006 - Billmon Gets It -- Do You?
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about Billmon. For a refreshing change, I understood exactly what he was talking about. Billmon puts out a very nice blog nearly every day. It seems Mish agrees. This too was refreshing, since Mish by nature is contrarian. Then again, perhaps Billmon is too. 05/19/2006 - Ostrich of Omaha
Greg’s Note: Mish called me today to discuss ostriches. “Ostriches?” I asked. “Yes,” he said, “the Ostrich of Omaha.” Thinking ahead for a change, I replied, “You don’t really think Warren Buffett is an ostrich, do you?” “Oh no, but the chief economist for BusinessWeek does,” said Mish. 05/17/2006 - Snap! Crackle! Pop!
Greg's Note: Mish called me again today to tell me that the economy is like a bowl of cereal. My first thought was, "What now?" But since I am used to this kind of opening by now, I simply said, "OK, Mish, just why is the economy like a bowl of cereal?" "Oh, not just any cereal," he said. "In fact, it is a lot more like Rice Krispies than Golden Grahams. Just pour yourself a bowl, add cold milk, and listen to the sounds," he said. "It should remind you right now of how various markets are acting." 05/12/2006 - USA for Sale
Greg’s Note: Mish called me today and said the USA is for sale. "For sale?" I asked. "Yes," he said. "First it was oil companies, then ports, and now toll roads and bridges." "Who is buying this stuff?" I asked. Mish said, "Please sit down before I tell you." 05/11/2006 - Why Now?
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said everyone is focused on one word, instead of two words. As is usual, I had to ask Mish, "What the heck are you talking about?" His reply was that almost everyone was focused on the word "yet," while he was focused on the words "Why now?" 05/10/2006 - The Politics of Ethanol
Greg's Note: In the following article, Mish discusses the politics of ethanol. In the wake of higher gas prices, everyone is talking about expanding the use of ethanol. Mish takes a look at some of the grains, fruits, and grasses that are being used to make ethanol or could be made into ethanol. Many of you will find some surprises in his list. 05/08/2006 - Jobs: As Good as They Seem?
Greg's Note: In the following article, Mish takes a look at the latest job numbers. They were pretty bad, actually. 200,000 jobs were expected, but only 138,000 were delivered. Is that the story? No, not really, since Mish says 138,000 was nowhere near as good as reported. Can he back that up? I think he can, and he goes on to talk about other lies and distortions. 05/05/2006 - Promises, Promises
Greg's Note: Mish is looking at broken promises. Mish says that what is being promised in new condos is not being delivered. Heck, sometimes nothing is being delivered and entire projects are being canceled. He also talks about the first homebuilder fatality, but on a lighter note, takes a look at the Pulitzer Prize for fiction. Read on and find out. 04/28/2006 - Panic Time
Greg's Note: Mish called me and said that everyone is in a panic over oil. "How so?" I asked. It seems the U.S. Senate is discussing breaking up oil companies and sending people free money to pay for gas bills. Even the president is in on it, says Mish. Mish says the president is proposing ideas that will offer a benefit of one-quarter of 1% while pandering to others to buy votes. "I hope you have proof of that," I said. "Oh, I do," responded Mish. "But it's not just Republicans, either," said Mish, "Democrats are in on the nonsense too." The only one that has a level head is Ron Paul. 04/25/2006 - Exit Stage Left
Greg's Note: I did not expect this, but Mish has now turned nostalgic. It seems he has been watching reruns of that early 1960s cartoon Snagglepuss. "Well, that's fine and good," I said, "but what does Snagglepuss have to do with the economy?" "Heavens to Murgatroid," said Mish. "You can't be serious, can you? It should be clear to everyone that that the stages are being exited, primarily left, but also right." If you want to understand what's happening now in the economy, Mish says watch Snagglepuss reruns. 04/21/2006 - Canaries at the Periphery
Greg's Note: I talked to Mish earlier today, and he said he was sending me something written in Arabic. "Arabic?" I asked in astonishment. I told Mish that I cannot read Arabic, and neither can many, if indeed any, Whiskey readers. Still, I was curious and had to ask Mish when he learned to read Arabic. He replied, "Oh, I can't read Arabic either." "Well, then, how the heck do you know what you are even sending me?" I asked. "Don't worry," he said, "the canaries are chirping, and everyone will be able to see it." Suddenly, we went from Arabic to bird watching. Honestly, this is what I have to put up with every time I talk to Mish. 04/19/2006 - Financial War Games
Greg's Note: In the following article, Mish discusses war games. Not military games, but the likelihood of a derivatives mess causing some sort of financial meltdown. Greenspan says don't worry, derivatives are making banks safer for all of us. Is that true? Mish takes a look at Greenspan's past history with a couple of interesting flashbacks, one from the recently released Fed minutes from May 2000. What was Greenspan saying then and what was he saying in May 2005, and most important, what about the war games? Read on and find out. 04/14/2006 - Customers for Life
Greg's Note: Mish just sent me another article about housing. "Well, it's not really about housing," he said. "It's about customers." "Customers?" I asked. It seems Mish is looking at the mortgage origination and real estate sales businesses and wondering what brokers and loan officers are doing to get and keep customers. "Oh, so it is about housing, then," I said. "No," Mish replied. "It actually has very little to do with real estate. It has to do with customers. Everyone has customers. You don't have to be in sales, either, but you better be taking care of them." 04/09/2006 - Money Heaven
Greg's Note: Today Mish discovers a new realm in the "Mish money universe" -- Money Heaven. I'm not sure what Money Heaven looks like, but it's definitely a final resting place for some massive wealth. He starts with massive bond sales by less-than-optimal companies...then he turns to massive complex derivatives plays by European hedge funds...and finally he winds down with condo conversions in my dearest homeland of Palm Beach County, Florida. 04/05/2006 - A Path of Devastation
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