12/28/2006 - Strategic Thinking and Strategic Planning
By Byron King
Greg’s Note: Our favorite non-resident historian and roaming Peak Oil correspondent, Byron King, received some mail from Iraq this week. In this article Byron replies to the sender, and wraps up the year by addressing the difference between strategic thinking and strategic planning. And check out the link at the end, as Byron signs off. 12/27/2006 - Debating the Flat Earth Society, Part II
By Mike Shedlock
Greg’s Note: Mish called me last night and told me to look outside. Curious as to what he was up to this time, I stuck my head out the window. “The moon is made of cheese!” he said. Of course, I just waited in silence for his explanation. Apparently, he wanted to set me up for the final salvo in his debate with the Flat Earthers on the future of commercial real estate. Today he discusses the seemingly dismal state of building costs and rents. 12/26/2006 - Debating the Flat Earth Society, Part I
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked "Would you debate the flat earth society?" "Don't be silly", I replied, "Why debate someone when there is nothing to debate?" "But what about other fairy tales, especially those that become widely held?" retorted Mish. For once it seems I read his mind. 12/22/2006 - Dreaming of a Right Christmas...
By Jim Amrhein
Greg’s Note: Jim’s back, with a cheery Christmas missive. Should Christmas be a national American holiday? Read on to see what Jim thinks. 12/21/2006 - Will the U.S. Become a Banana Republic?
By Marc Faber
Greg's Note: Marc Faber returns today to ask whether America will become a banana republic. He makes a hearty attempt to answer that question - and then ties his pontifications into economic analysis and finally investment advice. 12/19/2006 - A Chain of Linked Engagements
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Our servers here at Agora Financial spewed fire last week, dear readers, with all the e-mail that you sent to me in response to the article entitled "Never Call Retreat?" by our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King. We forwarded the e-mail to Byron, who has more to say on the subjects of Clausewitz, Napoleon, and retreat. 12/18/2006 - Nickels, Copper, Lumber
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked, "How long will it be before a nickel is worth more than a dollar?" In the discussion that followed, Mish pointed out that the metal content in a nickel is now worth 7 cents. In fact, the mint just initiated "new rules" banning the melting of nickels and pennies. 12/15/2006 - States of a Nation
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's Note: Jim returns with another piece aflame. He offers his answer to Byron's last missive on the Iraq War. Please enjoy - I'll let you read it for yourself. 12/13/2006 - Auctioneer's Perspective
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and shouted into the phone, "Sold!" while banging a gavel on the phone. Dazed, and with bells ringing in my head, I somehow managed to calmly ask, "Just what is that all about?" "Auctions," said Mish, "I am practicing my condo auction skills." "Are condo auctions really working," I asked, "and in comparison with what?" Mish responded with a tale of two cities, Tampa versus Key West. Read on and see if auctions are really a success or not, and, if so, how. 12/12/2006 - Never Call Retreat?
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King looks at the concept of retreat. Byron starts with Clausewitz and Napoleon, but rapidly brings us up to the present time. 12/11/2006 - November Jobs Report
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today, talking about Omaha Steaks. It seems he nearly lost a bet for a box of them. He also went on to talk about the latest jobs numbers, and although the numbers weren't awful for a change, they were not exactly very good, either. More importantly, Mish spotted what may be the next trend in commercial real estate. He has a chart that shows his theory, but cautions we still need confirmation. 12/08/2006 - Where Is the U.S. Dollar Headed?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: In a shocking turn of events, I called Mish today and asked, "Where is the dollar headed?" I was hoping to catch him off guard, as he is always asking me questions I can't answer, but Mish didn't skip a beat. "I have a chart right here in front of me," he said. It seems we are at a major crossroads, right on multiyear support. Will support break? Read on and see what Mish thinks short term and long term for the U.S. dollar. 12/05/2006 - A Murder Most Foul; the World Set on Fire
By Byron King
Greg's Note: At Agora Financial, our beat is money and investments. Yes, we call Byron King our "Peak Oil correspondent" because he writes often (and well, according to a good portion of you ) on the subject of Peak Oil. And our subscribers have made a lot of money in investments related to Peak Oil. But Byron also offers a different set of perspectives on many other things that interest us, sort of his own historical view from a peak. 12/04/2006 - Floors, Ceilings, Camels, Straw
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today wanting to talk about floors, ceilings, camels, and straw. "Are you cleaning out the barn?" I asked. "Not at all" replied Mish who seemed amused at my joke. Mish went on to talk about financial derivatives, Bernanke, and CPDOs which is something I never heard of. But don't worry, Mish will make it all easy to understand, and some of it in a very humorous way. Read on and see how floors, ceilings, and camels all relate to the economy. 11/30/2006 - World Trade Progress
By Mike Shedlock
Mish called me today talking about world trade progress. "Have they made any agreements" I asked. "Of course", said Mish. For a moment I was excited until I found out that all that happened was that they agreed to agree, and nothing was really done. Agricultural products once again are a stumbling block. It seems that Paulson-U.S., Brown-U.K., Sarkozy-France, and Merkel-Germany are all speaking up for globalization and "free trade". But consumer groups in the U.S. and E.U. are both wary. Is is "Free Trade" we want or "Fair Trade" we want? Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about world trade progress. "Have they made any agreements" I asked. "Of course", said Mish. For a moment I was excited until I found out that all that happened was that they agreed to agree, and nothing was really done. Agricultural products once again are a stumbling block. It seems that Paulson-U.S., Brown-U.K., Sarkozy-France, and Merkel-Germany are all speaking up for globalization and "free trade". But consumer groups in the U.S. and E.U. are both wary. Is is "Free Trade" we want or "Fair Trade" we want? 11/29/2006 - Punctuated Bubbleibrium
By Justice Litle
Today Justice Litle returns with a missive that seeks to weave facets of evolutionary theory with the behavior of the markets. He even coins a new term, "Punctuated Bubbleibrium." Greg's Note: Today Outstanding Investments' Justice Litle returns with a missive that seeks to weave facets of evolutionary theory with the behavior of the markets. He even coins a new term, "Punctuated Bubbleibrium." 11/28/2006 - Catch-22
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "he was standing on his head". "Is the perspective any different?" I asked. "Not really", he replied, "but I wanted to see how things looked from the point of view of the home builder as opposed to the typical buyer/seller." Many have been waiting for an update from Mike Morgan about the Florida housing scene and Mish comes through again. Morgan also has some comments about Cramer and Bill Gates that he shared with Mish. Read on to find out if things look better standing on your head or not. 11/27/2006 - A New National Standard for Automotive Fuel
By Byron King
Greg's Note: We at Whiskey & Gunpowder hope that all of you had a good Thanksgiving holiday. But while Americans were eating the traditional turkey and stuffing, the rest of the world was hard at work. So in this article, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King reports on a recent announcement of what is rapidly developing into the world's largest synthetic fuels program. 11/24/2006 - Polishing the Crystal Ball
By Kevin Kerr
Today Kevin Kerr returns to W&G to give you the scoop on the commodity outlook for 2007. Does resource trend forecasting involve crystal balls or any other sort of magic powers? Kevin doesn’t think so. Finally, he mentions a little-mentioned metal that’s essential to the oil drilling industry. 11/23/2006 - Open Market Operations, Interest Rates, and Gold
By Mike Shedlock
Greg’s Note: Mish called me up today to wish me Happy Thanksgiving. Normally this is a holiday where people are busy spending time with their families, eating lots of food and watching football. But Mish is watching the markets on this Thanksgiving Day. He talked to me about an economic study by Liam J. O’Hara and liquidity traps. 11/22/2006 - Peak Oil & Gas, Energy Cornucopia, and Reality, Part II
By Dan Amoss
Greg’s Note: Today Dan Amoss returns with the second and final part of his series on Peak Gas. He details the gas drilling-production treadmill and points out that reserves decline even as more wells get drilled. Then he asks whose nat-gas forecast we ought to believe: The CEO of an aggressively expansive exploration and production company, or the rosy predictions coming out of CERA. 11/21/2006 - Peak Oil & Gas, Energy Cornucopia, and Reality, Part I
By Dan Amoss
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns to throw his analysis on Peak Gas into the Whiskey mixer. He joins with Byron in the rebuttal of Peak Oil & Gas critics CERA. Dan compares geopolitical challenges to shaky reserve data. He ponders whether or not the international oil & gas markets follow the efficient market theories. Finally, he looks back to recent prognostications from CERA - and judges whether they ended up correct. 11/20/2006 - Is California Going Bankrupt?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked "Is California Going Bankrupt?" This was unusual given that he is usually telling me something not asking me something. "What do you think" I replied, employing the standard gambit of tossing the question back when you are at a loss for what to say. The gambit seems to have worked.. 11/17/2006 - The Wasps in the Toolshed
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's Note: A big "thank-you" goes to those of you that wrote me asking for Jim's follow-up to his piece on the Iraq War. We go out on a limb here at Whiskey, blasting out stiff shots of opinion, so we're never sure how things will turn out. We plod onward, though, and I thank you for your continued interest. 11/16/2006 - Association for the Debunking of Peak Oil & Gas, Part II
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this second of a two-part set of articles, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King discusses the arguments of one of the more vocal, institutional critics of Peak Oil theory, Cambridge Energy Research Associates Inc. (CERA). CERA has been speaking out against the merits of the Peak Oil concept. So we asked our own oilman to take a look at what CERA is saying and report back. 11/15/2006 - Association for the Debunking of Peak Oil & Gas, Part I
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this first of a two-part set of articles, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King discusses the arguments of one of the more vocal, institutional critics of Peak Oil theory, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. (CERA). For several years, CERA has been speaking out against the merits of the Peak Oil concept. So we asked our own oilman to take a look at what CERA is saying and report back. 11/14/2006 - Lies, Deceit, Greed
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said he was listening to David Lereah at the NAR. "Your head must be spinning" I replied. "It is for sure" said Mish. "Lereah is second to none when it comes to doublespeak." At least most understand that he is a paid shill. But greed from some others in the industry is simply hard to understand. 11/13/2006 - 2006 Boston ASPO: The Canadian Tar Sands
By Byron King
Greg's Note: We are pleased to present another article on the subject of Peak Oil by our Peak Oil correspondent, Byron King. As frequent readers know by now, Byron traveled to Boston to attend the annual meeting of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO-USA). This is another in Byron's series of articles about what went on at the conference that was held at Boston University. 11/10/2006 - Consumer Credit Plunges
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and I caught him in mid-sentence: "...deeply immoral and economically suicidal..." And so I asked him how he heard about my last long term relationship. "No," he said, "pay attention now Greg - I'm talking about the American consumer." So I asked him to lay out his case for you. 11/09/2006 - Mind the Gap
By Justice Litle
Greg's Note: Justice is back with an essay dissecting the "We Think They Sweat" argument. No, he and I aren't traipsing down to the local sorority in philosopher garb..."We Think They Sweat" is a way to understand the effects of globalization. What does it matter if China churns out iPods at a 5% margin if Apple takes the hefty profits and delivers the benefits to American shareholders? 11/08/2006 - 2006 Boston ASPO: Peak Oil
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Today we present an article on the subject of Peak Oil by none other than our Peak Oil correspondent, Byron King. Byron recently traveled to Boston to attend the annual meeting of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO-USA). If you could not attend the meeting, please take a look at Byron's series of articles about what went on at the conference in Beantown. 11/07/2006 - Letters to the Editor: Global Warming
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Last week, we published an article on global warming by our favorite Peak Oil correspondent Byron King. The next morning, our server frothed with e-mail from the readers. Dutifully, we forwarded your comments to Byron, and, dutifully, he read them. We now yield the floor to you, dear readers, with a sampling of your letters and Byron's thoughts. 11/06/2006 - Global Economic Train Wreck
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "A global Economic Trainwreck" is about to happen. "Wow, that sounds serious" I replied. "It is" said Mish. He went on to explain how many people thought we were reliving "That 70's show. " But it seems we are not. It is more like "The Roaring 20's." "Can you give me some examples?" I asked. Read on to see the comparisons. I have to admit they are striking. 11/05/2006 - Coyote Dawn
By Justice Litle
Greg's Note: Today, Justice revels in a coyote-symphonic sunrise. He recently accompanied his wife on a deer hunting trip in early-morned Nevada - where he thought about the two different schools of deerhunter - the impatient "wham-bammers" vs. the stolid "experience hunters." After explaining the difference between these two camps, he forges a parallel between the deerhunter camps and the short-term hedgie-style traders and the more patient buy-and-holders. 11/03/2006 - Conquistador Silver -- Ours for the Taking
By Sean Brodrick
Greg's Note: Today you have a piece from Sean Brodrick - a.k.a. Black Bear - on the discovery of America and the history of Mexican silver. Ahoy conquistadors! At the end, he even mentions a silver stock that might be worth looking into. 11/02/2006 - Nobody Saw This Coming
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "Nobody Saw This Coming." "What exactly are you talking about now?" I asked. "Zigs and Zags" replied Mish. When everyone is looking for a "Zig" the market "Zags." 11/01/2006 - 2006 Boston ASPO: Renewable Energy Sources
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Here is the next in a series of articles by our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King, who recently traveled to Boston to attend the annual meeting of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO-USA). We at Agora Financial are pleased that we could be part of this important gathering. So if you could not attend the meeting, please take a look at what Byron has to say about what went on last week in the Bay State. 10/31/2006 - Numbers Game
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called today and asked if I believed the numbers. "What numbers?" I responded. "Basically, any of them, but for starters, how about the CPI, the unemployment rate, or the GDP?" said Mish. "No one believes those," I said to Mish. It seems I was wrong. Mish found a person who believes in those numbers. Mish went on and took a crack at dissecting the latest GDP numbers, as well as where we are headed. 10/30/2006 - 2006 Boston ASPO: Global Warming
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Last week, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King traveled to Boston, where he attended the annual meeting of the U.S. Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO-USA). If ever there was a man and a moment coming together, this was it. We at Agora Financial are pleased that we could support and participate in this important gathering. So for now, pleas relax and read Byron's series of reports. 10/27/2006 - Iraq and a Hard Place
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's Note: Here's Jim, trying to answer this question, "Why did we go to war in Iraq?" 10/25/2006 - Treasury Talk
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and whispered "...Return of the Big Bad Bond Daddies." I thought he was talking about another prison-horror flick, but after he explained himself I got his angle. Today Mish dissects some prominent bond fund managers' takes on the future of the bond market. The Fed says one thing, the Big Bad Bond Daddies say another. What do the Daddies have to say? Apparently some ridiculous and even absurd stuff. 10/24/2006 - Russia's Strategic Direction
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our resident Peak Oil man, Byron King, picks up where he left off in discussing the Russian strategy for remaining a great power in a dangerous and increasingly atomizing world. Previously, Byron reviewed the past 12 years of Russia's war in Chechnya. Here, Byron looks into Russian views of where things stand in the larger world, and where things might be headed in the future. 10/23/2006 - Lessons from Chechnya
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Our resident Peak Oil man Byron King has in the past given us some good articles on Russian history. For example, Byron has written about the territorial expansion of the czars in the 19th century, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, the relations of the Soviet Union with Japan in the 1930s, and Soviet nuclear submarines in the 1960s. In this article, Byron is reviewing Russia's recent war-fighting past in Chechnya and looking to the future. 10/20/2006 - Paper Money and Energy Demand, Part 3
By Dan Amoss
Greg’s Note: Dan Amoss returns with his third and final missive on the connection between fiat currency and energy demand. He specifically turns to state-controlled oil companies, which control the majority of world production. He dissects PETROBRAS, with an eye to whether or not they’ll use their future free cash flow for profitable exploration and production. Is PETROBRAS a good long-term investment? 10/19/2006 - The Easy Button/Pent-Up Supply
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said he is sick of donuts and is ready to push "The Easy Button." Obviously there was no way to fake a response to that so I simply asked him to explain himself. Mish went on to talk about a room of 1,000 donuts with more coming in each day and asked me "How many can you eat?" If you do not understand that question (or even if you do and want an up to date refresher course) please click on the first link in the article below. 10/17/2006 - Litigate or Liquidate
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our resident Peak Oil man, Byron King, takes a look at the negative business climates in some parts of the world. What is going on, and what does it bode for the future of industrial and economic development? 10/16/2006 - Furniture Focus
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today talking about furniture. One big company has already gone bankrupt and there have been other profit warnings lately. Lay-Z-Boy was the latest to warn yet they claim profit margins are set to rise. Is that a credible story? 10/15/2006 - Stacking Bales of Hay
By Justice Litle
Greg's note: Today, we re-launch our forgotten and unmissed weekend edition. And who better to pen the column than our buddy Justice Litle from Outstanding Investments? After extreme coercion and promises of eternal fame, Justice has agreed to join your stable of Whiskey aficionados. So you can expect to see some more of him. Today, he writes about coal -- that dark, dirty repository of sun. 10/13/2006 - The Curmudgeon Smooches Goldilocks
By Marc Faber
Greg’s Note: Marc Faber returns to the hallowed pages of Whiskey to reflect on his trip to the IMF conference. His experience there leads him to reflect on the financial services industry as a whole. He then looks at the future prospects for hedge funds and funds of funds. Does it look good? For some funds, maybe... And finally, he turns to the optimistic Goldilocks scenario. 10/12/2006 - Hubbert's Defense Department
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Would we at Agora Financial assign someone to cover a baseball game who does not understand the game of baseball? No, and besides, we don't cover baseball. What we do cover are investment themes, and in doing so we look at money and history and science and many other human motivations. Thus, when we wanted someone to write an article about the U.S. Department of Defense and the future of energy supplies, we assigned the job to our favorite Peak Oil man, Byron King. 10/11/2006 - How NOT To Fix the Global Economy
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about how NOT to fix the global economy. "Don't you mean how TO fix the global economy?" I queried. Before you can fix it, replied Mish you first have to address what the real problems are that caused the imbalances. That seems to be the major disconnect. 10/10/2006 - A Discrepancy in Jobs?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about discrepancies. It seems the government found 810,000 missing jobs. "That is a lot of lost jobs over a one-year time frame," said Mish. "What are the implications, and where are jobs numbers headed from here?" I asked. Read on and see how Mish sorts this all out. 10/09/2006 - Paper Money and Energy Demand, Part 2
By Dan Amoss
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss returns with his discussion of the connection between fiat currency and Peak Oil. What happens when rampant dollar inflation intertwines with the global energy markets? After all, oil is priced in U.S. dollars. Can foreign central banks afford to continue stockpiling Treasuries and dollars? After addressing these questions, Dan compares private oil majors with quasi-private, partially state-owned oil companies. Specifically, he looks at Exxon versus PetroChina...and talks about their prospects as long-term investments. 10/06/2006 - Occam's Razor
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me up today and asked me what my favorite razor was. This was yet another one of those strange out of the blue type of question from Mish that I have learned not to answer directly. "I don't really have one, what's yours?" I responded. "Occam's" said Mish. "Occam's?" I questioned, "how many blades does it have?" I learned that it does not have any. Mish went on to talk about conspiracy theories vs. simple explanations. 10/05/2006 - The Echoes of Peace
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King is back to being our favorite historian. In this second installment of a two-part discussion, Byron revisits a topic that he reviewed over a year ago, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. I asked Byron why he looks at a subject such as this, with which most people are unfamiliar. Byron replied, "It is the same thing as when I look at Col. Drake and Titusville. If we are coming to the end of something, I want to go back to the beginning and look for perspective on how it all started." So we go back to Tsushima. 10/04/2006 - The Echoes of War
By Byron King
Greg's Note: Our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King is back to being our favorite historian. In this two-part article, Byron revisits a topic that he discussed over a year ago, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. I asked Byron why he looks at a subject such as this, with which most people are unfamiliar. Byron replied, "It is the same thing as when I look at Col. Drake and Titusville. If we are coming to the end of something, I want to go back to the beginning and look for perspective on how it all started." So we go back to Tsushima. 10/03/2006 - Falling Dominoes
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "How about a game of dominoes?" "Dominoes?" I questioned, I have not played that for years. "Why on earth do you want to play dominoes?" Mish replied "I really do not want to play dominoes, I just want to discuss domino theory." It is of course conversations like this with Mish that I keep a bottle of the best whiskey I can find readily at hand. 10/02/2006 - Paper Money and Energy Demand, Part 1
By Dan Amoss
Greg's Note: Dan Amoss returns today to offer you a report on the recent developments in the natural gas market. He attacks from the starting point of fiat currency in a free market - and how that combination can beget some strange stuff. Is the demand side of the natural gas and oil industries truly free? How can fiat currency help stoke the price of a commodity in a free market? What's a better allocation of genius - crunching price data in a hedge fund or learning geology to find more natural gas? 09/29/2006 - A Major Disconnect
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said "Bull" before I could even spew out a greeting. Fearing a string of profanity, I said nothing. "Bull" he repeated, "One can't be bullish about everything all the time. Bull!" Oh, now we're getting somewhere, I thought. Let's delve into my favorite curmudgeonly past time - bearish analysis. 09/28/2006 - Flyboys: A Movie Review
By Byron King
Greg's Note: When I received this article from our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King, I had to call him on the telephone and say, "You wrote a movie review? I thought you were writing about oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico." Byron explained to me that the article is a review of a movie about events that took place in France, during World War I. "Doesn't Bill Bonner live in France?" asked Byron. "And doesn't Bill write quite a bit about the First World War?" Ummm...Yes, but I was still kind of confused. Then again, Byron has logged more aircraft carrier landings than this humble editor. Heck, Byron has logged a lot more carrier landings than the president of the United States. 09/27/2006 - A Blood Debt Yet to Be Repaid
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's Note: Jim is back with his third installment of his series about his redneck experiences. This time, he talks about how much America owes to these hard-working, self-sacrificing people. 09/26/2006 - Updating the Arrow After Home Prices Drop
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and said it was time to update the arrow. As usual I had no idea what he was talking about but I decided to take a new tactic. "OK, let's do that", I responded, hoping to figure out what Mish was talking about before he caught on. Well that lasted all of 5 seconds when Mish's next statement was "You don't really know what I am talking about do you?" 09/25/2006 - The Doctor Is Calling
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish just phoned in and said, "The doctor called." "I hope it's not bad news in the family," I replied. "Oh, it's nothing like that," responded Mish. "I am talking about copper -- Dr. Copper." It seems Mish has been watching copper and other commodities as a tell on the economy. Commodities are part of the confirming indicators Mish is using to tell whether or not the housing bust is about to spill over into other areas of the economy. Well, the good doctor is now making house calls. 09/21/2006 - Peak Oil and Theory of Value
By Byron King
Greg's Note: The other day, we received news of an intriguing comment by the chief executive officer of ExxonMobil Australia. In an interview, the Exxon man used the term "Peak Oil theory of value." We were not quite sure what this is, so we asked our Peak Oil correspondent Byron to look into it and report back. 09/20/2006 - More Anecdotes
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked if he could pass on a few anecdotes to Whiskey readers. My initial thought was, "What?!? No singing, no quizzes, no surprise questions?" I almost dropped the phone, but somehow managed to calmly ask, "Sure, anecdotes on what?" It seems the anecdotes are on the restaurant business, the price of drinks, entertainment, and housing. It also seems that some people are getting rather testy over the housing bubble. 09/19/2006 - It's a Dogma-Eat-Dogma World
By Byron King
Greg's Note: We opened our copy of The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 14, 2006 and saw a headline on Page 2, upon which the Journal often hides important news: "Producers Move to Debunk Gloomy 'Peak Oil' Forecasts." Gloomy peak oil forecasts? This has our name written all over it. We knew instantly that this was a topic to assign to our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King. 09/18/2006 - No Hard Landing
By Mike Shedlock
Greg’s Note: Mish called me up today to tell me there would not be a hard landing in housing. I was shocked. “Are you taking all your housing predictions back?” I asked. “No, not really,” Mish responded, “but I have it on great authority that there will not be a hard landing.” 09/15/2006 - A Tale of Two Citizens
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's Note: Jim returns with the second part of his personal pastiche of his recent experience with "rednecks." He quickly answers the predominant reader question and then goes on to tackle the redneck (or white trash ) stereotype. Then, he makes postulates that rednecks power the economy more than the white collared folk - and rallies some anecdotal facts to bolster his case. 09/13/2006 - There's a Hole at the Bottom of the Sea
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this series of articles, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King continues his discussion of the recent announcement by Chevron Corp. that it and its partners Statoil ASA and Devon Energy Corp. have confirmed a major oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico. What are the implications? Here is more of Byron's geological take on the matter. 09/12/2006 - Chevron Conquers the Rock
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our Peak Oil correspondent Byron King discusses the recent announcement by Chevron Corp. that it, and its partners Statoil ASA and Devon Energy Corp., have confirmed a major oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico. What are the implications? Here is Byron's historical and geological take on the matter. 09/11/2006 - Agree or Disagree
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and wanted to play a game. Wow, this is different, I thought to myself. "What game?" I asked. "Agree or Disagree," responded Mish. "I read you a paragraph from an article and you have to say whether you agree or not and why." This sounded like a trap, so I proposed reading the article to Mish and having him "Agree or Disagree." 09/08/2006 - Inflation du Jour
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today to talk about inflation. Oddly enough, there were no surprise introductions, questions, or anecdotes. In other words, it started out as a perfectly normal conversation, so I was wondering when the other shoe would drop. It took awhile (as it almost always does when talking with Mish), but he finished with some pretty bold predictions. Read on and see where Mish thinks inflation and prices are headed. 09/07/2006 - History of Financial Disasters 1763-1995 (Book Review)
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our favorite historian of the oil patch, Byron King, reviews a remarkable new study of the major financial disasters of the past 240 years. When we brought Byron onboard at Agora Financial a couple of years ago, we thought he was just your basic, run-of-the-mill lawyer, geologist, and Peak Oil guy. But take a look at Byron's discussion of financial disasters. 09/06/2006 - A Suggestion of Bankruptcy, Part II
By Byron King
Greg's Note: This is Part II of a continuing series on the subject of money, debt, and bankruptcy in the United States, written by our favorite nonresident historian and Peak Oil correspondent Byron King. Many readers have written to ask if Byron would amplify some earlier comments he made about bankruptcy. Byron is happy to oblige. This seems to us to be a timely topic, because the U.S. is the most indebted nation not just in the world, but in the long history of the world. 09/05/2006 - What Is Ford Worth?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Yesterday, Mish took a look at "The Way Forward" for Ford. One of those ways was to take Ford private. Some are suggesting that Ford's assets are way undervalued. Are they? Mish takes a look at pension and medical liabilities and comes to a completely different conclusion. Read on and find out why Ford is no bargain at these prices. 09/04/2006 - The Way Forward
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today wanting to discuss "The Way Forward." "What are you proposing?" I asked Mish. "Oh, I am not proposing anything" he replied. "I want to talk about Ford's plan to move forward." "What is the key point?" I asked. Mish responded that the key idea behind "The Way Forward" is to head south. "Head south?" I enquired. Of course, that simple question got a 12-point synopsis of all the things on the table. Read on and see what they are. 09/01/2006 - Are Homebuilder Stocks Actually Cheap?
By Dan Amoss
Greg's Note: Strategic Investment's Dan Amoss returns to ask us whether homebuilder stocks are a rosy value...or a whorish value trap. He takes a look at Toll Brothers and asks if we've reached a bottom. This is a superb complement to Mish's housing analysis featured in these pages. 08/31/2006 - A Suggestion of Bankrupcy, Part I
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In response to a recent article that we published entitled "National Bankruptcy," many readers wrote and asked if our favorite strategist, historian and Peak Oil correspondent Byron King, would write more about the subject. We appreciate your readership and want to be responsive to your wishes. When I asked him about it, Byron was happy to oblige. 08/30/2006 - Corporate Profits Increasingly to Disappoint!
By Marc Faber
Greg's Note: Today, Marc Faber returns with his thoughts on the chances for a coming recession. He looks specifically at corporate earnings and profits. Do we see an earnings bubble? How can corporate profit growth continue to outpace nominal GDP growth? In other words, "Is it different this time?" Dr. Faber also critiques the idea that rich nations reap the profits as poor nations grab the jobs. 08/29/2006 - How Black Is Coal?
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked, "How black is coal?" I have learned not to attempt to answer such questions from Mish. The answers are seldom what I expect. Instead, I listened to Mish talk about U.S. reserves of coal compared with the rest of the world. It seems the U.S. has the world's largest supply of coal. But burning coal contributes to global warming. Burning coal also contributes to as many as a million deaths a year in China, mostly as a result of smog. 08/28/2006 - The Psychology of Deflation
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today talking about the "psychology of burgers." Once again, I was initially stunned, and more or less speechless. But also once again, I knew it was going to be an interesting conversation. Mish claims there has been a recent abrupt shift in consumer attitude. No, he was not talking about housing, but, rather, hamburgers. To be more precise, he talked about the restaurant business in general, although burgers were the big tell. 08/25/2006 - Peak Oil and Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our intrepid correspondent Byron King presents some heretofore unpublished comments by one of the world's foremost experts on Peak Oil, Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari. Dr. Bakhtiari is recently retired as a director of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). This, in and of itself, makes his viewpoint important to the world's energy industry. We at Agora Financial and Whiskey & Gunpowder are pleased and privileged to be able to present this important and newsworthy report. 08/24/2006 - A Dose of Reality
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish called me today and asked if $100 million or so over five years would be enough to scrape by on. "Is this a trick question?" I responded. "No," replied Mish, adding that "Some CEOs may be risking prison because a mere $100 million was not enough." Mish also talked about an "on again, off again" dose of reality from head housing cheerleader David Lereah and others. 08/23/2006 - Increased Recession Risks
By Marc Faber
Greg's Note: Today Marc Faber returns to present his case for increased risks of a recession. He takes a look at consumer dining stocks and at the propensity for investors to hold on to falling stocks they've developed an irrational attachment to. Finally, he analyzes investor sentiment. He combines his take on all of the above factors into a gloomy outlook on the global economy. 08/22/2006 - Lessons I Learned in West Virginia
By Jim Amrhein
Greg's Note: Jim's back with an anecdote from West Virginia. He then spins his experience into a critique of the common judgments made on "rednecks." This is classic Jim - incendiary and opinionated. 08/21/2006 - Reflections on Danville, Ill.
By Mike Shedlock
Greg's Note: Mish is getting nostalgic. This was out of the blue and caught me totally by surprise. Mish's hometown has been in the news lately, and Mish is offering his reflections, not just about Danville, but about Smalltown, USA. Is there a savior for "Smalltown," USA? If so, what is it? Read on and find out. 08/18/2006 - John D. Rockefeller and the Age of Oil
By Byron King
Greg's Note: In this article, our intrepid correspondent Byron King returns to the oil patch of the 1860s and reviews the founding of the world's petroleum industry. In particular, Byron is addressing the role of a certain John D. Rockefeller.
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